28. September 2015 · Comments Off on Integration of a Discrete Choice Model and a Rule-Based System for Estimation of Incident Duration: a Case Study in Maryland · Categories: Conference Papers, Publications

Authors: Pei-Wei Lin, Nan Zou, and Gang-Len Chang

Conference: The 83rd Annual meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Jan., 2004

ABSTRACT:  This paper presents a system that integrates the discrete choice model with a rule-based supplemental module for estimating the duration of a detected incident. The entire system is developed with the archived incident information in Year 2001 from Maryland State Highway Administration, and tested with the Year 2002 incident data. The primary function of the embedded discrete model is to estimate those incidents having durations less than 60 minutes. For severe incidents that may last more than one hour, the system will employ a rule-based supplemental module constructed with information from previous incident management to perform the estimation. With such a system, the control center operators can estimate the potential impact of a detected incident, and select proper real-time incident management strategies, such as detour operations or ramp closure.

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